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2015

 

Author: BADJANA Hèou Maléki

Title: RIVER BASINS ASSESSMENT AND HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES MODELING FOR INTEGRATED LAND AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (ILWRM) IN WEST AFRICA

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The integrated assessment of river basins based on a holistic system analysis approach is of high relevance for sustainable water resources management. This is the background of the thesis which analyzed climate variability and land use changes in two river basins in West Africa and modeled hydrologic processes in the selected Kara River basin using the IHACRES and J2000 hydrological models respectively. The results provide consistent evidence of trend in rainfall patterns as well as important changes in land use and land cover in the study area. Both models provide insights into the basin hydrology and offer the potential to assess the impacts of climate and land management impacts on water resources. The study provides good baseline information for integrated land and water resources management in the basin and the region.

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Author: BIAO Eliezer Iboukoun

Title:IMPROVING RAINFALL – RUNOFF MODELLING THROUGH UNCERTAINTIES’ CONTROL UNDER INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE OUEME RIVER BASIN

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The objective of this work is to understand how the natural dynamics of a time-varying catchment, i.e. the rainfall pattern, transforms the random component of rainfall and how this transformation influences the river discharge. To this end, this paper develops a rainfall–runoff modelling approach that aims to capture the multiple sources and types of uncertainty in a single framework. The main assumption is that hydrological systems are nonlinear dynamical systems which can be described by stochastic differential equations (SDE). The dynamics of the system is based on the least action principle (LAP) as derived from Noether’s theorem. The inflow process is considered as a sum of deterministic and random components.

Keywords: Least action principle (LAP), stochastic differential equation (SDE), system dynamics, uncertainty.

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Author: GABA Olayèmi Ursula Charlène

Title:IMPROVEMENT AND COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF A NEW HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING APPROACH TO CATCHMENTS IN AFRICA AND THE USA

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The thesis presents new hypotheses to go further in the development of the model based on the Physics Principle of Least Action with a view of widening its application in Africa and in the USA. Its performance was compared to two well-known lumped conceptual models, the GR4J and HBV models. The analysis revealed that the three models have similar performance and timing errors. But in contrary to other models used in this study, MODHYMA is subject to a less loss of performance from calibration to validation. In order to explore the possible transferability of our model for ungauged basins studies, we then intended to investigate how model parameters could be estimated from the physical catchments characteristics.

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Author: KABORE/BONTOGHO Tog-Noma Patricia Emma

Title: MODELING A SAHELIAN WATER RESOURCE ALLOCATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN PRESSURE: CASE OF LOUMBILA DAM IN BURKINA FASO

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The aim of this study was to model water allocation under climate change and human pressure in an ungauged basin. The key findings of this study are that in general the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and temperature events are increasing. The assessment of water needs under RCP_8.5 and RCP_4.5 scenarios shows an upward trend of water supply meaning that this site will experience great challenges in the future. The unmet demand for different demand site will increase in the future due to the decrease in water availability and increase in water demand.

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Author: MBAYE Mamadou Lamine

Title: ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE SENEGAL RIVER BASIN AT BAKEL

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In this study we assess the impact of climate change on water resources by using uncorrected and bias corrected data from the regional climate model REMO simulations over the Senegal River Basin. Both simulations were used as input of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology – Hydrological Model over the Upper Senegal Basin. Applying the bias correction simulations of present day climate, substantially improved for both temporal and spatial variations of the basin’s climate and hydrology. The bias correction does not impact significantly the climate change signals over the Senegal River Basin. Furthermore, the basin will likely to experience a decrease a water resources in the coming decades.

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2016

 

Author: AZUKA Chukwuebuka Vincent

Title: RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESSES AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SOIL PROPERTIES OF THE KOUPENDRI
CATCHMENT IN NORTH-WEST BENIN, WEST AFRICA UNDER DIFFERENT LAND USE/LAND COVER

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The study investigated the hydrological processes from the local to the catchment scale and spatial variability of soil properties. Detailed soil data was obtained and analyzed using SOTER and geostatistical approaches. The soils were mostly Plinthosols (> 55%), highly degraded, low in nutrient and soil-water retention capacity. Slope position and land use influenced soil hydrologic properties. The variability was high for Ksat, moderate for SOC, Avail.P and C:N, but low for TN, BD. Runoff coefficient at plot scale compared to the catchment scale revealed strong scale issues. Surface runoff was the dominant runoff component in the catchment. The modeled result was satisfactory and the water balance reflected the hydro-climatic condition of the catchment.

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Author: BADOU Djigbo Félicien

Title: MULTI-MODEL EVALUATION OF BLUE AND GREEN WATER AVAILABILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN FOUR-NON SAHELIAN BASINS OF THE NIGER RIVER BASIN

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This study explored avenues for a proper estimation of future water availability over the Beninese Portion of the Niger River Basin. A multi-model evaluation using the statistically downscaled data of 3 regional climate models (HIRHAM5, RCSM and RCA4 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) run with 4 distinctive hydrological models (HBV-light, UHP-HRU, SWAT and WaSiM) were implemented. Water resources were treated as blue water (BW) and green water (GW) in such a way that only models found behavioural in simulating streamflow (soil moisture) were used to quantify BW (GW). An increase in rainfall (8.5 %) and temperature (0.20 °C) will likely induce an increase in GW (6.9%) but a decrease in BW (18.9%) in the future (2021-2050) in comparison to the present situation (1979-2010).

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Author: Begou Jamilatou Chaibou

Title: HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF THE BANI BASIN IN WEST AFRICA: UNCERTAINTIES AND PARAMETERS REGIONALIZATION

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The main objective of this study is to make prediction in ungauged catchments on the Bani basin to improve the knowledge of water resources availability. To this end, the hydrological model SWAT was calibrated on many gauged catchments, and the best optimized model parameters were entirely transferred from gauged to ungauged catchments based on physical similarity and spatial proximity approaches to simulate discharge hydrograph where it is not measured. Overall, regionalization yielded satisfactory to very good results at many ungauged catchments.

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Author: HOUNKPE Jean

Title: ASSESSING THE CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGES IMPACT ON FLOOD HAZARD IN OUÉMÉ RIVER BASIN, BENIN (WEST AFRICA)

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This thesis which assesses the climate and land use changes impact on flood hazard in Ouémé river basin, Benin (West Africa) focus mainly on (1) trend, break point and non-stationary flood frequency (generalized extreme value distribution) analyses of the annual maximal discharge at the main subbasins of Ouémé basin; (2) exploring potential changes in heavy rainfall magnitude and frequency through the generalized Pareto distribution; and (3) the investigation through multi-modelling approach (WaSiM and SWAT models) how changes in land use (different land use scenarios) would impact on the flood characteristics (frequency and severity).

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Author: KOMI Kossi

Title: FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT IN POORLY GAUGED RIVER BASIN S – A CASE STUDY OF THE OTI RIVER BASIN, TOGO, WEST AFRICA

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Local flood risk assessment is important for both efficient flood management and climate change adaptation. The main aim of this thesis is to assess flood risk in the Oti River Basin (West Africa). The research methodology is articulated in four main steps namely (i) regional flood frequency analysis based on L-moments (ii) hydrological modelling for flood prediction, (iii) flood hazard mapping using flood inundation model and (iv) community-based flood risk assessment via a combination of flood hazard map, survey data on vulnerability, exposure and coping capacity. This thesis showed that flood risk in the Oti River Basin is relatively moderate and predominantly driven by high vulnerability and hazard. Both exposure and coping capacity are relatively low.

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Author: OYERINDE Ganiyu Titilope

Title: CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NIGER BASIN ON HYDROLOGICAL PROPERTIES AND FUNCTIONS OF KAINJI
LAKE, WEST AFRICA

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The study evaluates hydro-climatic changes in the Niger basin using scientific analysis and knowledge of rural people. Opinions of rural farmers on climate change impacts and methods of resilience were collected through field survey. The IHACRES hydrological model was adapted to the Niger basin and used to simulate current and future (1951-2100) impacts of climate change on water resources using reanalysis and ensemble greenhouse gases scenario based climate models projections. The water balance of the largest man-made lake and hydropower dam (Kainji) on the basin was numerically solved to derive a lake reservoir and hydropower model. The approach used in the study ameliorated the nagging challenge of uncertainties in hydro-climatic projections and showcased approaches for sustainable climate change adaptations.

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2017

 

Author: Moussa IBRAHIM

Title: ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE NIGER RIVER BASIN, WITH FOCUS THE NIGER INLAND DELTA (NID)


This study focuses on a comprehensive understanding of the NID’s hydro-climatological functioning using water balance model approach to develop NIDWat. After a clear description of the water budget’s elements specific to the NID catchment, a spatial and temporal dynamics of the annual flood across the NID over the period 2000-2009 was performed using microwave radar data from satellite QuickSCAT. The estimated areas were used along with observed discharge and remotely-sensed climatic data to quantitatively evaluate each water balance component. The NIDWat model was validated against observed river discharge and water abstractions and shows a good performance.

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Author: KOFFI Kouakou Valentin

Title: HYDROGEOCHEMISTRY AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUNDWATER RECHARGE: CASE STUDY OF THE CRYSTALLINE BASEMENTAQUIFER OF NORTHERN GHANA


The study first studied the water quality of both surface and groundwater in a part of the crystalline basement aquifer of Northern Ghana which covers 25000 km2 and used five different methods to estimate present day recharge, namely the baseflow (BF) recession analysis, the Chloride Mass Balance (CMB) method, the Water Table Fluctuation (WTF) method, the model based method using the distributed WetSpass model and the simple water balance method. The impact of climate change was investigated based on two Regional Climate Models (RCM) nested in three Global Climate Models (GCM) under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.

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Author: LIMANTOL  Andrew Manoba

Title: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGES ON VEA CATCHMENT AND IRRIGATION SCHEME IN UPPER EAST REGION OF GHANA

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This study used Water Mass Balance approach and IHACRES model to estimate streamflow for ungauged catchment. With the estimated streamflow and socioeconomic scenarios drawn from survey data gathered, the impact of climate change on water resources availability for irrigation in the catchment was assessed using WEAP model. Observed climatic data from four stations were analysed. The study also examined land use/cover changes in the area. The findings showed a rising trend in temperature and potential evapotranspiration. No long-term trend in rainfall data was evident. The study indicates a projected water stressed condition in the catchment due to climate change and rising water demand. Significant decline in land cover over the past two decades was observed.

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Author: TOURE Adama

Title: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND POPULATION GROWTH ON GROUNDWATER RESSOURCES: CASE OF THE KLELA BASIN IN MALI, WEST AFRICA

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Groundwater is the only permanent water resources in the Klela basin which are threatened due to the climate variability and change and population growth. Therefore, this study was focused on assessing the impacts of climate change and population growth on groundwater resources in the Klela basin using RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The overall result shows that groundwater storage and groundwater levels are decreasing over time especially in the 2030s. This decrease is more significant in climate change than population growth.

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Author: Mawuli LUMOR

Title: ESTIMATION OF STREAMFLOW AND SEDIMENT LOADS IN THE WHITE VOLTA BASIN UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS


This thesis presents an evaluation of the impact of climate projections on streamflows and sediment loads in the White Volta Basin using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) coupled with an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under the CORDEX-Africa Project. The RCM-GCMs ensemble projects a future (2031-2050) rise in temperature by 2.3°C and 2.7°C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively relative to the baseline (1990-2010). Surface runoff is also projected to increase on average by 23.8% and 27.8% whereas evapotranspiration is projected to decline on average by 1.5% and 1.0% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Sediment loads in the basin is projected to increase on average by 24.7% and 26.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. 

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